Published: April 13, 2008 12:19 am            

DODD: Columnist shares his Clark County election odds

It is Kentucky Derby season and handicapping the Derby is almost as difficult as picking winners in local political races. I never publicly endorse any candidate in my column. However, I do like the challenge of picking winners in a political horse race — so here is my handicapping and odds.



Clark County

Council At-Large

• Charlie Milburn: I do not know him or anything about him, but liked his questionnaire responses. ODDS: 25-1.

• Perry Smith: A record of public service that leaves a record for critique but when employed at a funeral home you know everybody and I enjoyed playing softball against him in my youth. 5-1.

• Kevin Vissing: I do know him personally, a political novice with an 0-1 record and the first maiden win is the toughest. 15-1.

• Thomas Campbell: Did not respond to Evening News public questionnaire- I predict any candidate who did not do so will lose in May. 100-1.

• Chuck Moore: Also did not respond to questionnaire but some voters will confuse him with Mike Moore, so he has a chance. 5-1.

School Board District 6

• Robert Burgin: A political maiden running in a political Grade 1 stakes race. ODDS: 100-1.

• Olivia Hanley: A possible spoiler if overlooked in May’s most hotly contested local race between the front runners; watch out. 10-1.

• Robbie Valentine: He has the form of a past stakes champion who looks like a cheap claimer- at the track a drop in class can mean possible slippage or an easy victory. 5-1.

• Jerry White: The “hot” entry in this race. Favorites win 65% of the time at the race track. 2-1.

Judge of Clark

Superior Court 2

• Andrew "Drew Adams"- no track record on my political race form- unknown ability. ODDS: 50-1.

• Jerry Jacobi- Mixed past record and will endure mixed strong feelings from voters. 5-1.

• Shelly Marble- Race track lore cautions against a lone filly in a race against the boys — but she has political breeding and one remembers that Winning Colors’ led wire-to-wire in her Derby victory. 10-1.

• Dan Moore: A long time political player with many connections — the one to beat, but beatable. 3-1.

Greater Clark County

Schools - District 5

• Christina Gilkey: Must overcome bloodlines (niece-Culpepper Cooper) but can’t throw out. ODDS: 15-1.

• Bill Halter: Solid past performance record indicates contenders must run a perfect race to beat him. 2-1.

• Thomas Long: A preacher who won’t have his political prayer answered in May. 50-1.

• Stacey Wiese: She is another filly with a legitimate shot to be in the hunt at the finish line. 10-1.

Clark County Commissioner – District 1

• W. Erick Hedrick: Track rumor is that political party leaders wanted him to scratch from the race for their pick, Bob McEwen, which tells me he has a strong chance of a win. ODDS: 5-1.

• Bob McEwen: Attempting a jump in class from School Board to Commissioner and publicly trying to justify Culpepper Cooper's insurance contract on the News and Tribune Forum. He will be a favorite in May with party backing. 3-1.

• Ed Meyer: Current office holder certainly has some support but track sources say he is ripe for an upset loss with such a long past performance record. 2-1.

Clark County Commissioner- District 2

• David Abbot: Past form shows much political success and is current favorite to beat. ODDS: 9-5.

• Keith Coats: Local businessman with some name recognition- should garner support. 10-1.

• Don Guthrie: No political track record to study, seemingly nice guy, but nice guys finish? 25-1

• Les Young: He is another political maiden running in a crowded field. Will Les be More? 35-1.

Greater Clark School Board- District 7

• Rebecca “Becka” Christensen: If ever an entry was the common $2 bettor’s sentimental choice with a lacking of a political pedigree and no previous political track experience this is it. ODDS: 5-1.

• Charles Neal: Most classically trained entry with a blueblood educational pedigree and also backed by the Culpepper Cooper stable. He should be a formidable foe in this race. 2-1.

Greater Clark School Board - District 2

(Disclaimer: I must claim a track bias regarding this race, since I was once an entry who scratched)

• Richard Sawyer: Probably a long shot in this race which will see lots of public support at the polls in May. ODDS: 25-1.

• Jim Wesp: He is a political newcomer with a sparkling educational resume and a clean personal track record. My strong favorite to take top spot in Charlestown but is he an unknown entity in Jeffersonville. 2-1.

• Ernie Gilbert: If you don’t know his personal track record by now you probably aren’t interested in this race (and many people remember a high school library meeting when he called Charlestown’s activist’s citizens involved with the new school construction- “whiners”). He is another candidate who failed to answer the Evening News questionnaire. Hiding your head in the sand won’t help in May. 15-1.

Always remember that the one certain characteristic of Derby Day at the track is there will be lots of upsets on the race card. I never wager (vote) on all the race favorites.



Lindon Dodd is an Otisco resident who is a freelance writer, 4-H School Enrichment Program Assistant and Realtor who can be reached at lindon.dodd@hotmail.com.

        

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