DeKAY: Perception vs. reality, the numbers are in

By Peggy DeKay
Local Columnist

May 07, 2008 05:46 pm

— “I got addicted. News, particularly daily news, is more addictive than crack cocaine, more addictive than heroin, more addictive than cigarettes.”
— Dan Rather, former American television journalist
•••
A poll in USA Today, on March 18, showed 59 percent of Americans think a ”depression lasting several years” is “likely.” My question this week and last, is this: Are these gloomy perceptions about crime, the economy, or anything else, the result of hard data, or do we suffer to some extent, from what Nickolas Vardy of the Global Guru sites as the ”tyranny of the negative headline?”
Bad news sells, and exceptionally bad news sells exceptionally!
Last week we had a short quiz and the results are in. Here are some of highlights. Geneva and Sarah received the highest scores, each getting nine answers right. Both get their news from a variety of sources such as The New Albany Tribune, blogs, Web sites and network news. Irvin and Tiffany each got seven questions right. Irvin also got his news from a variety of sources, including The New Albany Tribune while Tiffany relied on local news. Clint, Shonnese and Larry, all of which received a score of six, got their news primarily from one or two sources, those listed were Fox News, CNN, and local newscasts. The rest of you came in at five or below. The lowest score was four.
Given the unscientific nature of the survey, I will postulate this correlation; the higher the number of news sources, the higher the test score. The primary source of the news did not alter the results, but rather the variety of news sources accessed.
I read the same headlines that most of you do. I hear about home foreclosures, a downturn in the economy, horrendous crimes, and dreadful predictions for the future; yet, I read in Financial Times that many corporations are experiencing record profits, most due to their participation in European markets. I read about crime every day, and yet my loved ones and friends have not experienced crime personally. The empirical evidence for me does not support the headlines, i.e.; I have a job, my husband has a job, we are not the victims of crime.
When I was growing up my folks watched the six o’clock news ... this was before cable and hence before the advent of 24/7 news coverage. With the popularity of cable news networks, financial news networks, and upsurge in news coverage in general ... it is no wonder that mayhem is at the top of mind.
Turn on your television and what will you see? Too often it is a steady diet of news, or “CSI” type crime shows filled to the brim with murder and mayhem, real-life court docudramas, and unsolved crime shows. Many of these shows are intriguing to watch, well-made, informative, and downright scary.
A steady diet of that type of programming may over time; raise our level of anxiety about our personal safety. The reality is, violent crime in America is down, and no one seems to know it! Perhaps more importantly, no one is talking about it!
James Thurber once said that “there is no safety in numbers, or in anything else.” Are we to believe it? Many of our opinions on safety, happiness, sadness, and well-being are based on our perceptions of those things, and not necessarily on fact. In psychology and cognitive science there is a term called confirmation biases. Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking, whereby one tends to notice and look for those things that confirm one’s belief; while at the same time, ignoring or undervaluing those things that contradict one’s beliefs.
One example of confirmation bias might be if you believe that during a full moon there is an increase in admissions to the emergency room where you work, you will notice those admissions. On other nights, when admissions are up and it is not a full moon, you will ignore those admissions because they don’t support your perception. If you do this over time, it will have a tendency to unjustifiably strengthen your belief in the relationship between the full moon and accidents.
I go out into the world every day, and each day I interact with dozens of people. Through the grace of God, on the vast majority of those days, I experience interacting with nice people, thoughtful people, who are kind and considerate, polite and cooperative. This is the reality; and this, I believe is the empirical confirmation that the world is not so much scary as it is wonderful, beautiful, and full of opportunities.
“What you see is news, what you know is background, what you feel is opinion.” — Lester Merkel
A good rule of thumb for news is to try not to react emotionally, but logically, weighing the information, the source, the credibility, and the preponderance of supporting fact against our own common sense, and the empirical data we experience each day. Deciphering the news is like deciphering your teenager ... what you see is not necessarily what you get, and what you hear is not necessarily what was meant.
Thanks so much to those of you who forwarded your test results last week. I promise no more tests the rest of the summer!
“Thoughts from the Hungry Side of Daybreak” are written by Peggy DeKay, a business and freelance writer and Clark County resident. She can be reached at DKcommunications@insightbb.com.

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