Published: August 14, 2008 06:34 pm            

NEWS ANALYSIS: Evan Bayh on the brink

The culmination of Evan Bayh’s quarter century political career with an eye on the White House could come down to this weekend. If Barack Obama selects him for the Democratic ticket, he has a path to the White House over the course of the next eight years.

It appears that Sen. Bayh is on the shortest of short lists. Democratic Washington consultant Chris Sautter explained, “What we’re hearing is Bayh and someone else.”

Bayh appears to be taking a page from Vice President Dan Quayle, who on the weekend prior to his 1988 selection by George H.W. Bush, appeared on ABC’s This Week with David Brinkley. This Sunday, Bayh will square off with Republican Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty on CBS’s Face the Nation.

We know that Obama campaign vetters are ruminating through his gubernatorial records at the state archives in Indianapolis. ABC News political analyst George Stephanopolous picked up on an aspect Howey Politics Indiana exclusively reported this week: that a non-media filming crew was compiling B-roll of Bayh and Obama at Schoop’s in Portage on Aug. 5. HPI intern Ryan Nees was ordered by an Obama campaign official to remove himself from “our shot” after he found himself behind the two senators at the diner. His analysis noted that the film crew was not wearing Obama campaign media credentials and were outfitted with sophisticated video/audio gear.

The timing of Obama’s announcement appears to be sometime between Monday and Thursday of next week. Obama returns from his Hawaiian vacation over the weekend. A veep rollout this weekend or Aug. 23-24 goes against long-time rules on how to utilize media exposure, though the unconventional Obama campaign has repeatedly thumbed the old rules and conventional wisdom. Fridays are a bad media rollout day. It is unlikely he would announce his running mate on Aug. 26 or 27 when Bill and Hillary Clinton will address the Democratic National Convention.

Other potential short-listers: U.S. Sen. Biden, former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, like Bayh, have not been given convention speaking roles to date. Nor have Al Gore or Sen. John Kerry, both also new to the veep speculation list.

The Obama staff has orchestrated a campaign to collect cell phone numbers with its plans to text message the veep selection. Not only is this a buy-in for it supporters (no pun intended), but it adds to the campaign’s already burgeoning data bases.

Left Gears Up Against Bayh

The left-leaning Democratic blogs have begun a campaign to try to thwart Bayh’s nomination. The most prominent, the Daily Kos, makes the case against Bayh not on ideology, but on the fact that Gov. Mitch Daniels would likely choose a Republican successor if he ascends. The Kos wrote, “The veepstakes buzz today appears to be that Barack Obama is seriously considering selecting Evan Bayh as his running mate. And while there have been a number of other boomlets for VP candidates in recent weeks, the timing of this one — coupled with the fact that Bayh, unlike a number of other names in the news, hasn’t been assigned a speaking spot at the upcoming convention — indicates that the buzz might have the ring of truth.”

The Kos argues, however, “Regardless of Bayh’s merits as a running mate and potential vice president, his selection would carry with it one immutable and giant negative: the inauguration of Vice-President Bayh would very likely create a new Republican senator. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is a Bush loyalist who has a substantial, 10-15 point lead over Democrat Jill Long Thompson in his bid for re-election. As much as we’d like to hope for the best, it’s improbable that Long Thompson is going to defeat Daniels. Now, Indiana Democrats will point out that Long Thompson has done well in fundraising, and that the presence of Bayh on the ticket would undoubtedly help her. But the fact remains that Daniels is more likely than not going to win the race. And that means that he would have the ability to appoint Bayh’s successor in the Senate.”

Further, the Kos analysis explains, “Democrats can expect to come out of November with 55-58 Senate seats, not including Joe Lieberman, who’ll probably go along with the Democrats on a number of cloture votes. That puts us in a very good position to beat filibusters on a number of crucial legislative initiatives. But every seat that goes to a far-right Republican is a body blow to our ability to really take advantage of our majority. Barack Obama needs to ask himself whether Evan Bayh is worth possibly losing meaningful health reform or immigration reform.”

A new Facebook group called “100,000 Strong Against Evan Bayh for VP” has surfaced. Steve Clemons opines over at the Huffington Post that Evan’s chances are betting than even. He explains why Bayh is unacceptable: “In contrast to his indefatigable, passionate, and legislatively masterful father, Evan Bayh’s approach to policy and politics comes off as flat and squeezes the air, sizzle, and enthusiasm out of the Obama balloon.”

Iraq War Vote

Some anti-Bayh forces are playing off a Tuesday Page 1 New York Times analysis: As the Senate debate on the use of force against Iraq neared its climax in October 2002, Sen. John McCain turned on the floor to Senator Evan Bayh to ask what had led him to take such “a visible, as well as important” role in seeking congressional consent for military action.

“There is reluctance in my heart, as I know there is in the other senators, to contemplate the use of force,” Mr. Bayh said, adding that he concluded “we were simply left with no other credible alternative to protect the safety and well-being of the American people.”

The article quoted Tom Andrews, national director of the Win Without War Coalition as saying, “He was not only wrong, he was aggressively wrong. In my view, he would contradict if not undermine the Obama message of change, turning a new page on foreign policy and national security.” Eli Pariser, the executive director of the antiwar group MoveOn.org, added, “We are not going to get into which particular person is good or bad. We hope that emphasizing Senator Obama’s judgment against the war is something they consider in making their pick.”

The Times analysis noted Bayh’s “advocacy for the war could complicate his prospects for getting on the ticket, despite Bayh having served as a popular two-term governor who could make Indiana…a competitive state and appeal to blue-collar Democrats who have been slow to embrace Mr. Obama.”

The Russian Invasion, Biden & Nunn

Another element is the Russian invasion of Georgia. This could be a double-edged sword for Bayh. He sits on the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees.

But the Russian invasion adds a new foreign policy dimension and that might favor Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Joe Biden or Sam Nunn, who heads the Nuclear Threat Initiative. HPI watched as Nunn met with key Russian officials like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Rosatom Chief Sergey Kiriyenko in August 2007. Nunn was present when the Russian Duma began the breakup of the Soviet Union and has deep, deep relationships since 1991 with Russian intelligence, military and scientific leaders that could make him indispensable to an Obama administration if it appears that Russia is gearing to recoup its lost empire. The same scenario, however, could position Nunn or Biden as Obama’s secretary of state.

Pointing to Bayh

There are a number of other aspects that point to Bayh. If selected, Bayh would expect to campaign often in Indiana in an attempt to bring its 11 Electoral College votes into the blue column for the first time since 1964, as well as crucial neighboring Midwestern states of Michigan and Ohio. HPI believes that with Bayh on the ticket, Indiana would distinctly lean toward the blue column. That is the lesson learned when Bayh “seamlessly” integrated his powerful political organization into Hillary Clinton’s. Her 1.14 percent victory over Obama in the May 5 Indiana primary thwarted the Obama campaign models and is one reason that Bayh has risen to the shortest of short lists. Without Bayh on the ticket, Indiana is, at best, a tossup and perhaps a “Leans R” given the prowess of Gov. Daniels’ organization and the state’s traditional Republican moorings.

The selection of Virginia’s Mark Warner as the DNC keynoter is seen as bad news for Gov. Tim Kaine, who over the past three weeks was seen as a short-lister and someone who might out-flank Bayh by bringing red state Virginia’s 13 Electoral College votes into the Obama column. The Washington Post reported that Warner’s selection “appeared to dim the changes that the state’s current governor would be selected.” A SurveyUSA automated poll of 655 likely Virginia voters taken Aug, 8-10 showed McCain leading Obama 48%-47%, an element that Kaine called “astounding” since Virginia hasn’t gone Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964. Recent Indiana polls show the race within the margin of error,

The New York Times reported that Kaine “replicates” Obama’s strengths: While running mates “typically complement the presidential candidate, Mr. Kaine, 50, more replicates Mr. Obama. He is an inspiring speaker, a Harvard-trained lawyer who spurned corporate work for civil rights.”

Some of the veep speculation runs into the absurd. Roll Call’s analysis is that Kaine’s eyebrows could hurt his chances: Kaine’s brows - arched, wiggly and what most people remember from the Democrat’s rebuttal to the State of the Union speech in 2006 - have become one of the chief objections from some pundits to Kaine taking a spot on the Democratic ticket.” Groan.

Edwards Creep Factor and Gender Impact

Finally, there is the John Edwards factor. His now acknowledged infidelities while his wife’s cancer was in remission could have a calculable impact on female voters, many of whom believed that Hillary Clinton’s “inevitable” nomination meant it was their time. Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson told Chris Mathews Hardball on MSNBC that Edwards’ second place finish in Iowa destroyed Clinton’s nomination hopes. We don’t believe that is accurate, as many polls revealed that Obama was the second choice of many Edwards supporters in Iowa.

But the John Edwards “creep” factor is a nuance that could further unsettle Clinton’s female supporters in Denver later this month. They are already pushing for a roll call floor vote to present a “catharsis.” Bayh is seen as a Clinton supporter who might be seen as palatable to many Hillary supporters. But this story, like the Russian invasion, could present a twist in the political calculation. With Obama’s lead in the daily tracking polls hovering between 2 and 5 percent, there are fears that Obama hasn’t been able to close the deal or get the 90 percent of the Democratic base (it appears to be around 80 percent now.)

The vice presidenital nominee will speak Wednesday, Aug. 27, at the convention, the night after Hillary Clinton. Could the Edwards creep factor lead Obama and vetter Caroline Kennedy to pull a page out of the 1960 JFK playbook and bring a previously despised but respected rival onto the ticket? Or might Obama heed the actions of another past Illinois president - Abraham Lincoln - and decide that the best place to put Hillary over the next four years is in the West Wing, creating a 21st Century version of the “Team of Rivals.”

        

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