Hill and Sodrel home counties aren’t freebies for familiar Ninth District opponents

By DANIEL SUDDEATH
Daniel.Suddeath@newsandtribune.com

October 19, 2008 08:35 am

— Despite hailing from New Albany, Mike Sodrel has been challenged in Floyd County during past elections and has yet to win Clark County.
The Republican candidate for the Ninth District U.S. House seat won Floyd County by just three percent during the 2006 election, when Democrat Baron Hill regained the position by defeating the then incumbent. Sodrel and Hill say they are comfortable campaigning in each other’s backyard.
But Hill only carried his home county of Jackson by 93 votes in 2004, but extended that margin to more than 1,000 in 2006.
Hill won Harrison County in 2002, but it has gone to Sodrel in the past two elections.
“I think we tend to do well in Jackson because it’s a real conservative county,” Sodrel said.
Hill carried Clark County by 520 votes in 2006 according to election counts provided by the Indiana Secretary of State’s office.
With a SurveyUSA poll showing Hill enjoying a double-digit lead in percentage points over Sodrel and Libertarian candidate Eric Schansberg, the Congressman said he’s still not laying back.
“The only poll I believe in is the poll on election day,” Hill said. “It’s interesting to me that I’m able to win this area [Floyd and Clark], even though it’s not by a whole lot.”
But when combining Clark and Floyd, Hill actually lost the area by 157 votes in 2006 to Sodrel. A small amount, but the three previous races between the two have often been tight.
Sodrel defeated Hill in 2004 by just 1,425 votes in a presidential ticket-election that saw sizable voter turnout. He won the Ninth district 49 to 48 percent over Hill.
Hill bested Sodrel in Clark that year by 615 votes, basically canceling-out Floyd’s count which went to Sodrel by 598 votes, meaning Hill carried the two counties by 17 votes.
Indiana University Southeast Associate Professor Joe Wert, who is also the faculty representative for the College Republicans at IUS, said home turf can be overrated when talking about closely-connected political territory.
“I don’t know that one person being from a particular county means a whole lot,” he said, adding that Floyd and Clark are Democratic areas making it difficult for Sodrel to gain substantial ground there.
“I don’t think he’s going to get much of a boost being from Floyd County.”
Hill’s endorsement of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama could cost him votes and maybe counties in some of the tightly-contested areas, according to Sodrel.
“Hill endorsing Obama — that didn’t sit well with a lot of people in his party,” Sodrel said. “The misstep that he made has been helpful.”
Wert said McCain is probably a more popular choice in Southern Indiana than Obama, which could make Sodrel’s assertions true.
Floyd and Clark were dominated by Hillary Clinton during the May primary, even though she won Indiana by only a narrow margin. Clinton won 65 percent of the vote in Floyd and 67 percent in Clark over Obama.
IUS Professor Linda Gugin, who also serves as the faculty representative for the College Democrats at IUS, said the presidential race will definitely drive voter turnout.
“Take Sodrel’s win in 2004. He benefited greatly from having Bush on top of the ticket and that overrode other factors and helped get him elected,” she said.
But Gugin added the political tone of the country can have a great impact even when it’s not a presidential-election year.
“It was a Democratic year in 2006. The changing of the tide benefited Hill,” she said.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST
The Libertarian candidate believes he received more votes from the typical Hill voter in 2006, citing post-election data. He said his emphasis on ending the war in Iraq and his platform of helping the working poor and middle class probably led more Democrats to vote for him than Republicans.
Either way, convincing people to select an office-seeker from outside the mainstream parties is difficult.
“People give me their votes, I don’t use force on them,” Schansberg joked.
“In fact, I have to work harder since few people just give their votes to third-party candidates.”
But Schansberg said he’s not in the race just to make an appearance. His campaign has run more than 1,500 radio ads and 2,000 television ads during the current campaign, a greater number than during the 2006 election.
“People say they want change. Well here’s a highly credible candidate who would be a breath of fresh air,” he said.
Schansberg is looking forward to Tuesday’s debate in Jasper and doesn’t lack confidence in his ability for public discourse.
“They both have more experience in debating. But I believe that I often have better answers and can deliver them effectively enough,” he said.
Schansberg tallied 9,893 votes in 2006, about five percent of the total.
He said data he’s reviewed so far leads him to believe his affect will be evenly spread between Sodrel and Hill supporters.
“Perhaps because Iraq is less important and fiscal conservatism is now seen, finally, as more important,” Schansberg said.

Issues
While the candidates clash on how to solve issues facing Hoosiers, there isn’t much disagreement on what those topics are.
Gas prices and the economy are dominating national headlines and distressing local families.
Hill — who voted against the recent economic bailout — proposes that Congress should reconvene following the November election instead of furloughing for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
“The economic climate in Southern Indiana is not great, but it’s not bad like it is at the national level,” he said. “Sooner or later, if we don’t fix the national problems it will probably trickle down to the rest of us as well.”
Hill said holding people from the financial sector who may have caused the recent economic failures accountable will be a priority if he’s reelected.
Sodrel suggests plainer taxing methods — such as a flat tax — that he believes would stimulate the economy and lead to more jobs.
“I think the tax structure, everything I hear makes it more complicated. I want to make it simpler,” he said.
Sodrel agreed that Congress should get back to work after the election due to pressing matters facing the country.
Schansberg touts getting rid of taxpayer funding for planned parenthood, bringing home troops from Iraq and eliminating payroll taxes on income below the poverty line as his three top priorities if he’s elected.

BY THE NUMBERS
• 2006 race: Hill beats Sodrel 50 percent to nearly 46 percent for Sodrel. Schansberg garnered nearly five percent of the vote. Sodrel wins Floyd County 12,572 to Hill’s 11,895, or 49 to 46 percent, while Hill won Clark County 49 to 47 percent.
• 2004: Sodrel beats Hill by 1,425 votes with a 57 percent voter turnout in the district. The total was Sodrel 49 percent and Hill 48 percent. Sodrel defeats Hill in Floyd County 50 to 49 percent. Hill wins Clark County over Sodrel 50 to 48 percent.
• 2002: Hill defeats Sodrel by 51 to 46 percent. Hill won Clark County 51 percent to Sodrel’s 47 percent. Sodrel won Floyd County by just 38 votes.
• 2000: Hill defeats Republican Michael Bailey 54 to 44 percent.
• 1998: Hill defeats Republican Jean Leising 50 percent to 48 percent.

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