“Practice make perfect, but nobody’s perfect, so why practice.”
— Kurt Kobain
Forty-seven votes! I missed perfection by a total of 47 raw votes. I have never achieved a perfect score in Dodd’s Odds, but this past week I missed out on achieving a perfect score by just 47 votes. If it were by 47 cents, I might have been able to search beneath my couch cushions for loose change to make up that deficit.
Michaela Gilbert loses her Clarksville race by 17 votes. Treva Hodges wins her upset bid by a mere 30 votes. If I related my performance to that of a perfect game in bowling that would be like missing out on a 300 by just a handful of pins count. Hit .750 in baseball and you will have your own wing at Cooperstown. Be right three out of four days on the forecast and weathermen and women around the world would praise your name.
This past week the annual Dodd’s Odds tallied six wins and two losses. Did I mention that my two losses were by a combined total of 47 votes? Surely both of those picks must fall somewhere within the statistical margin of error. If that is mathematically true then I was actually perfect this year.
What did we learn from the 2019 election results? Mike Moore is where Bob Hall used to be on Election Day. Bob Hall’s possible recount is pending. Clarksville’s old Democratic tradition is slowly returning. And Kentucky’s soon-to-be-former Gov. Matt Bevin is as big a jerk as most of us knew him to be.
My last political prediction for the year 2019 — Treva Hodge’s victory in Charlestown withstands any recount or halogen.
To be perfectly fair with myself, I did suggest strongly that Treva Hodges might pull the upset in Charlestown. To be accurate, I followed that warning shot with the words, “But I can’t pick it!” In my mind the most overwhelming theme of the result of the Charlestown mayoral race isn’t just that Bob Hall went down in defeat; rather, a woman has been elected as the first mayor of not only Charlestown but in the history of Clark County politics. When you think progressive political philosophy, I know Charlestown has to be the first place that comes to mind.
Turnout for a non-presidential year election seemed to be around 33 percent. Not horrible. But compare that to the 68% voter turnout in Russia in 2018, and North Korea last time had a 99.99% voter turnout with almost the same percentage of favorable ratings for Rocket Man’s performance. Perhaps we need to learn a thing or two from brutal dictators in getting the people out to vote on the first Tuesday in November.
In keeping with my analysis of several past elections, one must question if any trends appeared this past week. I did see some hope on several local levels for Democratic gains — especially in Clarksville. The Charlestown results might have been a bit of an anomaly in that regard. Dustin White received almost as many votes in the Jeffersonville city election as did Mayor Moore.
The Trump effect is harder to fully acknowledge in the results of the past week both locally and nationally. With one year left until the 2020 presidential elections, I am not yet prepared to state unequivocally just what the Trump effect might be with any confidant form of accuracy.
I will continue to grind the totality of Southern Indiana election results through my analytical analysis and come up with a statistical result in order to make my annual Dodd’s Odds picks again in the calendar year 2020. In other words — I will wing it by my gut feeling and by the seat of my pants again in the spring 2020 primary races.
But for now, I will continue to bask in the glow of my near-perfect picks for the 2019 fall election results. A cynic might assert that I picked the easy wins and lost the two toughest races. I am always a bit skeptical of cynics.
An old Egyptian proverb states, “A beautiful thing is not perfect.” I have no idea what that means, either. I am really glad I didn’t have a perfect Dodd’s Odds column. I always said if I bowled a 300 I would never bowl again. What would be the sense in that?
— Lindon Dodd is a freelance writer who can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.