Democracy is on display (if not for sale) and soon every American will have the right to exercise his/her/gender neutral person’s right to vote. Election time in Clark County can only mean one thing — it’s time for Dodd’s Odds!
Before I get into handicapping the individual races let me explain two important political terms that I feel will have a quantifiable effect on a couple of individual political races. One is straight-party-ticket voting and the other term is the undervote ballots.
Straight party voting is when you vote for every candidate in one party. I will explain in one race how that can be important. Under voting means when you choose not to vote for anybody in a race. I never straight-party vote but personally almost always undervote on my ballot. Sometimes I know both scoundrels and choose neither! And now, without further aplomb, Dodd’s Odds!
Judge of Circuit Court 3
Full disclosure. I know both people in this race, and, in fact have a sign for one in my front yard. In the primary Lisa Glickfield had the most undervotes of anybody unopposed. Joe Weber had the most votes of anybody unopposed in his primary. I would suspect that the straight ticket numbers could affect this race but less than others on the card. Weber won last time by 1000 votes when it was almost a Republican sweep! Dodd’s Odds!
• Joe Weber 9:5
• Lisa Glickfield 5:1
Judge of Circuit Court No. 1
Again, I know and have worked in some fashion with both men and have a sign for one of them in my yard. Dan Moore has run for office for both political parties and ran a strong race against Circuit Court No. 4 Judge Vickie Carmichael last time out. Judge Andrew Adams, I believe, was a first-time candidate when he won his first election to sit on the bench.
If you were a fly on the wall anywhere in the Clark County Courthouse this race is without a doubt the race that people working in that building are anticipating the most on election night. In fact, in my 13 years in that building, this is the most highly anticipated race I can ever remember and nothing comes close. Straight party ticket voting could have a measurable effect. In recent elections in some years Republican straight party tickets held a 2500 vote advantage and in another election the difference was over 4000. I also believe this race will be responsible for more people not voting straight ticket than any other this year.
I went with Adams the last time out and will stay with that pick; however, this race could probably go either way on Election Night. Dodd’s Odds!
• Andrew Adams 8:5
• Dan Moore 9:5
County Commissioner District 1
Connie Sellers certainly has the political name recognition in this race. In politics that goes a long way when other factors are even. Recent elections still suggest a Democrat must be clearly outstanding to beat a Republican in the past few elections. Since I don’t see a strong Democratic tidal wave, I can’t pick Democrat Don Vogel and since the Tea Party influence waned I can’t see a Libertarian win. Gregory Hertzsch can take hope that I am making him the same odds as Les Young when he pulled off an upset win for Commissioner — my highest underdog to ever win in Clark County. And yes, my old buddy Les Young has reminded me a couple of times. Dodd’s Odds!
• Connie Sellers 6:5
• Don Vogel 3:1
• Gregory Hertzsch 25:1
County Commissioner District 2
Jack Coffman is the incumbent and the Republican candidate in this race. That will probably be two major advantages at the polls. H.C. Sellers is the Democratic challenger. I can’t remember any real controversial things in the news regarding commissioners for some time. Advantage Incumbent and Republican here. Dodd’s Odds!
• Jack Coffman 1:1
• H.C. Sellers 3:1
County Council member at-large
I always get tripped on in a race where you can vote for three people. Most commonly I go two for three but undauntingly I will go there yet again. This is the race that if you vote straight party ticket you still must vote for these candidates individually. Without a lot of banter, I will simply choose the three that I feel will get the most votes. Dodd’s Picks:
Kevin Vissing, Brandy Brewer and David Abbott. If I lose on this race it will be because John Miller got in the Top 3. Us people in the odds-making business refer to this as hedging your bet!
President of the United States
Attorney Larry Wilder, an astute political adviser and one of the people I generally consult with regarding local elections, and I were discussing poll numbers, voting statistics from recent elections and personal thoughts this past week. Unbelievably Trump’s poll numbers have been going down statewide in polls and some people (and by people, I mean non-Republicans) think this still could turn into a race. I think hands-down Trump wins Indiana, but I will make my prediction nationally.
Trump’s strong fan base will be there loyally. However, I believe he might have lost a percentage point or two from last time out. Turnout, straight-party-ticket voting, and the number of minority voters will surely make a statement in this race. Does Covid fatigue mean Trump fatigue? I am not sure any of us will know until Election Day and perhaps for weeks after that with what I can see as all the contesting of the votes that is almost sure to follow.
• Joe Biden; 9:5
• Donald Trump 2:1
• Write-in Votes: 100:1
As always, vote early and vote often and remember don’t wager more than you can afford to lose on my odds. Good luck to your candidates.